The domain industry may not be set to shrink, but it’s not set to grow either, according to predictions in ICANN’s newest draft budget, published this week.
The Org’s bean-counters have also confirmed that the recently announced fee increases for registries, registrars and registrants may become a “repeatable” occurence.
ICANN says its budget for fiscal 2026, which starts next July, sees funding and expenditure both at $142 million, down $3 million on its adopted 2025 budget.
It’s predicting a pretty flat domain industry for FY26, with no growth in transactions from legacy gTLDs (mainly .com) and 1% growth from new gTLDs. Legacy would stay at $83.1 million and new would grow to $12 million.
ICANN reckons it will lose 17 contracted gTLD registries by the end of FY26, going from 1,109 to 1,092. It reckons it will accredit just three new registrars over the same period.
The estimates are all mid-points. ICANN has also given high and low estimates that vary from transactions growing by 9% or shrinking by as much as 14%.
The financial predictions are also probably going to get revised, as they don’t include the impact of ICANN’s planned fee increases, which have not yet been given final approval.
The Org said in October that it plans to raise the per-transaction fee for registrars, which buyers usually added on at the check-out, from $0.18 to $0.20.
The registry transaction fee will go up from $0.25 to $0.258. Fixed fees for registries and registrars will also go up.
The draft budget calls the increases “equitable, contractually efficient, pragmatic, and repeatable”.
“Inflationary increases can continue at ICANN’s discretion as contemplated by the Base gTLD Registry Agreement,” suggesting they could become an annual inflation-linked event.
The budget us currently open for public comment.
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