Karol Nawrocki will be Poland’s next president after he defeated Rafał Trzaskowski in the Polish presidential election on 1 June. Bartłomiej Kot writes that Nawrocki is likely to promote closer alignment with Donald Trump and a tougher stance on both Ukraine and the EU.
Karol Nawrocki’s narrow victory in Poland’s presidential election marks more than just a change in leadership – it signals a shift in the country’s political architecture that could reshape its European trajectory and transatlantic orientation.
The campaign leading up to the vote was less a contest of ideas than a clash of personal profiles. Rafał Trzaskowski, the liberal, internationally known Mayor of Warsaw, faced off against Nawrocki, a political outsider with a controversial past and limited public service experience.
Beneath this personal drama lay a deeper political confrontation – one that extends beyond party lines. It was a referendum on two visions for Poland: a European-facing democracy grounded in liberal values, and a sovereignty-driven project increasingly shaped by the wind of change brought to Europe by the return of Donald Trump and the growing assertiveness of the far right.
Turbulence ahead
The stakes could hardly have been higher. In Poland’s semi-presidential system, the president wields considerable influence over foreign affairs and national security. With Nawrocki now installed in the presidential palace, Poland is heading into a turbulent period of political cohabitation between Nawrocki and Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European government.
This cohabitation is unlikely to be cooperative. Nawrocki’s strategy appears set: weaken the Tusk administration, fuel public disillusionment with the ruling coalition, and pave the way for early parliamentary elections. A reconfigured Sejm, led by Law and Justice (PiS) in coalition with the far-right Confederation party, is no longer a far-fetched scenario.
On the international stage, expect a combative posture toward Brussels and Berlin, and a closer ideological alignment with Trump’s MAGA movement. In EU affairs, Nawrocki is likely to adopt a confrontational tone, criticising the European Commission for allegedly favouring political opponents and framing migration and climate policy as infringements on national sovereignty. The dormant Visegrád Group may be revived under his leadership – not as a functional bloc, but as a symbolic platform for resisting deeper European integration.
Alignment with Trump
Guiding much of this approach may be Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, a former European Parliament Vice-President who has transformed from a top European People’s Party member and a pro-European centrist into one of Brussels’ most vocal critics. His trajectory reflects the broader ideological evolution of Poland’s right-wing establishment – and may foreshadow Nawrocki’s own policy path.
Relations with Germany are also likely to sour. The issue of World War II reparations – long used by Law and Justice as a political cudgel – could resurface as a core theme. Meanwhile, Germany’s rising defence budget may be recast in domestic rhetoric as a latent threat – particularly for older voters with strong historical memories of German militarism.
On NATO, Nawrocki will likely maintain Poland’s firmly anti-Russian stance, not least due to his own symbolic value – he is wanted by Moscow for ordering the removal of Soviet monuments during his time at the Institute of National Remembrance. Yet his engagement with the alliance will diverge from the current consensus in Brussels. He will seek instead to align Poland more closely with a Trump-led United States, both ideologically and strategically.
In fact, this alignment carries no risk to Trump. While Nawrocki appeals to American conservatives, US-Poland relations are firmly defined by bipartisan strategic interests, such as military cooperation and investment in nuclear energy. These ties endure regardless of political shifts. The fact that US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem held cordial talks with Minister of the Interior Tomasz Siemoniak on the same day she rallied behind Nawrocki at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) speaks volumes.
A more sceptical stance on Ukraine
The more immediate tensions will play out domestically. Disputes over armed forces appointments and international representation are likely. Nawrocki may also attempt to exploit tensions within Tusk’s governing coalition, particularly targeting the agrarian Polish People’s Party (PSL), where elements could drift back toward Law and Justice in pursuit of future influence.
Foreign policy toward Ukraine could also become a flashpoint. In the final stretch of the campaign, Nawrocki questioned Ukraine’s NATO ambitions – an apparent appeal to far-right voters. Whether this was an opportunistic gesture or a genuine signal remains unclear.
But in the context of growing PiS-Confederation cooperation, a more sceptical stance on Kyiv could harden. This would give Nawrocki space to criticise the Tusk government’s “softness” on Ukraine – especially on historical memory issues such as the commemoration of the Volhynia massacre. Such tactics may play well domestically, but they risk limiting Poland’s influence within NATO and weakening its role in shaping the western response to Russia’s war of aggression.
A new phase for Polish politics
The implications of the election result for Tusk are serious. The failure to secure the presidency will now be perceived as a strategic misstep – perhaps even a turning point. If the government becomes bogged down by presidential vetoes and institutional deadlock, calls for early parliamentary elections will grow louder.
Yet amid the political rivalry between the two largest parties, another dynamic is quietly taking hold: the rise of smaller parties offering substantive policy platforms, particularly on issues like housing, the green transition and social spending. The far-right Confederation has been the biggest winner from this trend so far. Should early elections be called, Law and Justice would almost certainly pivot further toward this electorate, consolidating a new right-wing bloc shaped by American-style political tropes and cultural battles.
Poland is entering a new phase. The country has chosen a president who thrives on confrontation, not consensus. The coming months will likely bring institutional friction, foreign policy clashes and deepened polarisation. What emerges on the other side could redefine Poland’s democratic structure – and its place in the European and transatlantic order.
Note: This article gives the views of the author, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: Tomasz Warszewski / Shutterstock.com
